Sunday, March 23, 2008

Can Yanks harvest max value from farm?


The Yankees' highly publicized youth movement is receiving accolades from fans and media. The barren farm has been reseeded at a break neck pace as the Bombers flaunt their financial clout and reload. Last season's lethargic, under-performing roster filled with over-paid mercenaries was brought to life by a group of young players that played with joy and enthusiasm. Jaded fans were refreshed by the energy and winning that the kids sparked. The farm is now the foundation of the future.
Getting optimum value from prospects is a multi-dimensional job. The focus has been on minor league ratings and work-in-progress major league neophytes. It's not that easy. The Yankees must be willing to trade some of their prospects that are more hype than substance. No matter how many quality minor league players an organization has most will fall short at the major league level. Last season saw a long list of not ready for prime time players come and go, a year later many of them are off the radar--"and so it goes."
The Baseball Prospectus 2008 Guide gives a scouting report on the Los Angeles Angels that will apply to the Yankees. They note that the Angels are a quality organization with a strong farm system but note, "Have held on to too many prospects for too long, only to watch their value plummet as it turns out that they really aren't as good as cranked up to be... contrast this with the Braves who have proven consistently willing to peddle their oft-touted farm talent and who have rarely come to regret it." It is ironic that a key ingredient in the Yanks' future success will be the ability to trade prospects. Separating the wheat from the chaff will be a vital skill.
Brian Cashman has been quoted as saying, "there is a tendency to become attached to prospects." BP notes, "it requires wisdom to cut the cord to some of the prospects the organization has cultivated and perhaps, jealously treasured." It may sound premature to bring this topic up now, but the hype is at full bloom. Time will tell how much value the Yankees harvest from prospects real or imagined.

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